Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 180.117808 211.702850 248.708075 295.657189 354.194760 425.518939 5.201502e+02
2025-11-09 137.551980 174.474469 222.181427 289.613811 384.598685 517.000809 7.218504e+02
2025-11-16 112.681710 150.615077 203.104127 283.350387 407.297448 599.454636 9.374398e+02
2025-11-23 95.758756 133.172774 187.738076 276.482041 424.222122 674.749036 1.168238e+03
2025-11-30 89.453284 129.318353 190.561305 296.606541 487.483515 843.994247 1.641945e+03
2025-12-07 81.082473 120.781323 184.298332 299.924895 521.798100 971.526967 2.098735e+03
2025-12-14 74.974141 114.780866 180.902483 307.063913 564.503916 1130.335910 2.724491e+03
2025-12-21 68.655012 107.510686 174.099683 306.314432 590.841602 1262.893567 3.373186e+03
2025-12-28 66.448855 106.834761 178.632958 328.137003 671.444415 1559.128871 4.774341e+03
2026-01-04 63.732436 104.868314 180.417459 344.627306 744.961632 1873.219856 6.589506e+03
2026-01-11 60.852095 102.223255 180.463375 357.328420 813.308144 2209.528980 8.960266e+03
2026-01-18 57.730831 98.753401 178.363861 364.751686 870.398044 2543.968785 1.188852e+04
2026-01-25 54.194135 94.268337 173.927818 366.693067 915.812852 2878.102196 1.560375e+04
2026-02-01 50.183895 88.465939 166.042318 358.863725 930.703366 3111.025516 1.926539e+04
2026-02-08 46.600294 83.157655 158.561215 350.698188 942.499685 3344.192213 2.370203e+04
2026-02-15 43.354064 78.218807 151.289376 341.746507 949.246851 3564.133181 2.888814e+04
2026-02-22 42.916172 78.969665 156.743189 368.023148 1087.230918 4553.003563 4.873265e+04
2026-03-01 41.017899 76.475919 154.461469 372.367831 1148.384504 5203.986336 6.932505e+04
2026-03-08 39.576700 74.816487 153.926023 381.725870 1233.770916 6110.628969 1.063368e+05
2026-03-15 37.661529 71.956423 150.171695 380.742721 1277.324274 6804.210516 1.501810e+05
2026-03-22 37.438638 72.796565 155.581648 409.435800 1464.465527 8883.807376 3.152769e+05
2026-03-29 36.814422 72.672134 158.559534 431.207212 1634.163184 11209.397719 6.719008e+05
2026-04-05 35.967209 71.955811 159.921816 448.026623 1791.108347 13833.151665 1.508974e+06